Q I’ve been sitting on the sidelines watching the big rally back to new highs. All of the politics just kept me worried. How high can it go? So, my question is what do I do now? Should I just jump in? Should I wait? Please help me figure it out.
A It is frustrating to watch the stock market do the unexpected. Many had thought when the market tanked in the first quarter that the bottom was many months away. Our ATM (as in And Timing) had been bullish since 11/1/2023. On 3/27/2025, it turned bearish. It turned bullish again on 4/28/2025. It has remained bullish since then.
The point is we have full confidence in our ATM as our main market timing model. It is back tested from 9/1/1988 through the present. We believe it captures most of the up markets and avoids most of the down markets.
So, enough of that background. At this point, what should you do? We suggest you take the amount you want to invest in the stock market and make strategic entry buys. For example, let’s say you have $10,000 in cash, in a money market that you want in the stock market. Divide whatever that number is by four. Then you have one of two choices. Either buy each Monday for the next four weeks or buy each day of the month for the next four months, say on the 15th of each month.
Once you begin to act, either buying or selling, inertia leaves and is replaced by a proactive process.
From there, we obviously would suggest continuing to monitor ATM for its next signal.