OPEC+ reported it will increase production by 547,000 barrels beginning in September. Oil is currently about $70/barrel.
We suggest there are three potential geopolitical Impacts to watch for in the quarters ahead.
More production implies lower prices ahead. This may help lower inflation figures. According to Investopedia there is a significant relationship between oil and domestic inflation.
Lower prices may also influence certain wars and specifically the Russian and Ukraine War. According to the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, the lower the price of oil, the lower Russian revenues move.
At the same time, lower prices for oil impacts the domestic oil industry as well. The Dallas Federal Reserve has interesting reading about breakeven prices.
In short, greater production implies lower prices. Depending on who is drilling and where they are drilling, the impact may be a mixed bag. Too low prices may help inflation and lower war revenues, but too low may negatively impact the domestic market.